11 More Days. Then What?

 I think there is going to be a Blue Tsunami on November 3. Americans are dissatisfied with Trump, many of us are angry, and I expect there will be a very high Democratic turnout. Independents will turn out, too, and I suspect a good many Republicans will stay home rather than vote for candidates associated with Trump.

I’m not a very reliable observer. I’ve thought Trump was a loser for more than ten years now, and I’ve been disgusted with him since 2015 and earlier.

Still, I’m not alone in expecting a Democratic victory. The Cook Political Report has been moving congressional races toward the Democrats, as reported by Axios on October 9. The Senate is less certain, but Democrats have opportunities there too.

I think Democrats will take the House, possibly by a substantial margin, and I think they have a good chance of taking the Senate. I could be wrong. Elections have a way of surprising us.

But the size of the victory isn’t what worries me.

I’m worried about what happens after November 3.

I don’t think Trump will accept a Democratic victory, whether it’s a landslide or a narrow win. I don’t think the size of the vote will make any difference to his response. A decisive result might make his opposition harder to sustain, but I believe he will oppose it just the same.

Trump has a history of rejecting election results he doesn’t like. When he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016, he claimed that millions of illegal votes had been cast. After losing the 2020 election, he refused to accept the result, and we saw what happened on January 6, 2021.

I think some of Trump’s allies sincerely believe that only certain Americans should have their votes counted. Their definition of a legitimate American voter seems to exclude people they regard as outsiders, particularly immigrants and racial and religious minorities. I think some of them truly believe it.

And that makes me worry about what they might do.

Reuters recently published an excellent investigation, Nine Ways the Trump Administration Could Interfere With the Midterms. It examines possible actions involving federal law enforcement, election materials, certification disputes, and the seating of elected members of Congress.

I suspect we will see attempts to use several of those tactics. I can imagine challenges county by county, disruptions resembling the Brooks Brothers Riot during the Florida recount in 2000, and federal agencies becoming involved in disputes that properly belong to state and local election officials.

I don’t know how far Trump and his allies will go. I don’t know how far the courts will let them go. I don’t have complete confidence in the Supreme Court and I certainly don’t expect the Vice President or Speaker Mike Johnson to stand up to Trump.

I don’t think they can overturn a national election. I do think they can refuse to abide by its results.

They may be unable to change the votes, but they could try to prevent those votes from producing the government the voters elected. They could challenge certifications, obstruct the transition to a new congressional majority, or create enough confusion and confrontation to make the ordinary transfer of congressional power extraordinarily difficult.

The Constitution and the law provide protections against such actions. But laws don’t enforce themselves. They depend on public officials willing to carry out their responsibilities, even when doing so puts them at risk.

The real fight will begin on November 3.

And that frightens me.

I’m not predicting that Trump will succeed. I don’t think he will. But I don’t think stopping him will be easy either. We may be entering a period when the institutions of our democracy are tested in ways most of us have never experienced.

I expect a great deal will depend on the integrity and competence of state and county election officials, the independence of the courts, the willingness of members of Congress to honor election results, and the preparations already being made by organizations defending the electoral process.

As a citizen and a voter, I can only do what I’m capable of doing. I can demonstrate, write letters, publish articles, and make my voice heard. It doesn’t seem like much, but I will do what I can.

There’s a lot to worry about. The Democrats may disappoint me once they’re in office. I’ve certainly experienced that before. But first they have to be allowed to take office and exercise the authority the voters have given them.

In the meantime, I’ll pray, organize, and trust the American people. I don’t have much choice.